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2022 World Series Odds: Super 6 Picks, Best Bets for Astros-Phillies Game 3

2022 World Series Odds: Super 6 Picks, Best Bets for Astros-Phillies Game 3

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, it’s time for your final exam: the World Series. Nothing better than that.

Hopefully, you studied hard this season, learned some new tools, and earned a few extra bucks in the process. Remember to watch your own papers during this final stretch because we’ll be going over Game 3, the overall series, and some Super 6 fun.

So let’s dive in, with odds, of course, courtesy of Bet FOX!

Exclusive interview with Jeremy Pena of the Houston Astros after Game 2 of the World Series | Flippin’ Bats

Jeremy Pena of the Houston Astros offers an exclusive interview after Game 2 of the World Series with Ben Verlander.

RELATED: Best World Series MVP Bets

Houston Astros

NEW

Philadelphia Phillies

PHI

Houston Astros (McCullers) at Philadelphia Phillies (Syndergaard) at (8:03 pm ET Monday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Game 2 looked like the first time in a long time that the Phillies’ bats never seemed able to get their ball club back in the game.

Framber Valdez he allowed just five hard-hit balls over six innings of work, resulting in manageable ground balls and curveballs. It’s interesting because, at least with the curve, the Phillies have one of the best lineups hitting this pitch, ranking seventh in pitch value.

Now, they’ll face Lance McCullers Jr., who uses a mix of slider, curve and pen to pepper the edges of the strike zone and may be more effective traditionally. He hasn’t pitched as much this season as many other starters, but against these same Phillies, McCullers allowed just one earned run in six innings of work.

For the Phillies, it’s safe to say Game 3 is a bullpen game — all of Noah Syndergaard’s postseason appearances have been three innings or less.

While he’s allowed just one earned run in three innings, there are good reasons why it’s better to keep Syndergaard’s looks short to where he doesn’t see the lineup more than once and can pitch effectively in a possible game 7. It is worth noting his percentage of shots. in the 12th percentile of pitchers, and Astros hitters are dangerous when they make contact.

What’s interesting about this rested Phillies bullpen is how drastically it has performed lately. In the regular season, Philadelphia’s relievers ranked 13th in expected batting average allowed (.228), but in the postseason, they have been fifth best at .187 but, more importantly, a improvement of more than 40 points.

Now to answer your question: will this be in the test? The answer is yes! As I mentioned in our MVP class, Yordan Alvarez i Jose Altuve they are two of my favorite MVP bets. A play on the same game is for both to get a hit (-125 at FOX Bet).

Speaking of Altuve, another bet I like is anytime (+475 at FOX Bet). While it looked like he had been swinging too wild in early October, he hit 28 dingers in the regular season and is heating up now, so shoot immediately.

Finally, Philadelphia’s bullpen may be due for regression to the mean. At some point, a pitcher can struggle against some outstanding hitters. Houston can cover the run line (+100 at FOX Bet).

Pick: Astros (-1) to win by more than 1 run (+100 on FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $20 total)

Pick: Jose Altuve to hit a home run (+475 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $57.50 total)

PICKS: Parlay, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve hit in Game 3 (-125 on FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $18 total)

Now for the Super 6 question and answer portion of the class.

Super 6 contest selections

How many total runs will be scored in the game?

I think it’s telling that this game has a total of eight runs per FOX Bet when in the past we’ve often seen seven. That we’re getting deep into the series and that the weather won’t be incredibly cold in Philly tonight makes me think it’s okay to trust the market. Make 8-9 runs.

Which team will kick the most spikes and how many will they have?

Back to the bullpen stats, while the Phillies have been more effective, they haven’t been with the bullpen. His rate in the postseason is just 30.4%, slightly better than league average. However, McCullers’ K% is 25.6%. Houston’s bullpen can hit a lot of hitters, but I’ll take the Phillies here but a modest 6.

Which team will have more hits and how many will they have?

Since I’m expecting a slightly higher scoring contest that the Astros win, they should have several hits tonight. Since Syndergaard & Co. he can try to keep the ball down, there might not be many homers beyond the usual suspects, so I like 10.

Again, think of several ways this number could go. If this game goes into extra innings, a higher number would also make more sense.

Which team will have the most individual base runners combined on base and how many will they have?

Since I have the Astros with a lot of singles and doubles, but also some runs, that might be a high number. If they have 10 hits but eight of them are singles and doubles, add some walks and you have a good chance. I like 11-12.

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

Let’s do some simple math. There are 27 at-bats for the Astros at least (remember plate appearances are different because they include walks) and 10 hits is the number I like, so let’s go with 37.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

Even though the series moves to Philadelphia and the scene will be electric, the Astros hitters are too much to handle throughout any series. Houston will win this game by a score of 6-3, so three runs is my pick.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and assistant professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become an aficionado of cold beer. Edward previously worked in local television, most notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas, covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. follow him Ttweet @EdWithSports.


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