NFL

Browns vs Bengals Odds, Picks

Browns vs Bengals Odds, Picks

Browns vs. Bengals Odds

Bengals vs Browns selections

To pick up
Joe Mixon 65.5+ yards rushing
Best Book
time
8:15 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: While Mixon is averaging a disappointing 3.4 yards per carry this season, he has had an impressive workload. On the week, he ranks eighth in the NFL hasty attempts per game at 17.3 door per party

While bengals He had started to lean more in recent weeks, and that was before top Ja’Marr Chase went on injured reserve. As long as they don’t get spoiled, the Bengals will likely lean more heavily on Mixon and the run game without one of the NFL’s top receiving weapons.


Bet Monday Night Football on FanDuel
Bengals -3.5 | Browns +3.5


That will especially be the case this week when Cincinnati faces one brown team that ranks 27th in DVOA against the rush. This is the best matchup Mixon has had all season.

With the Bengals as three-point favorites here, the flow of this one will more than likely allow Mixon to get plenty of touches. The mix of volume and efficiency is good, as is FanDuel’s lineup — it’s a few feet lower than what can be found elsewhere.

I would take this one up to 65.5 to -115 or better.


Quickslip: Joe Mixon 61.5+ yards rushing


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To pick up
Joe Mixon Over 21.5 receiving yards
Best Book
time
8:15 p.m. ET

Charlie DiSturco: The Bengals have no shame in getting Mixon the ball. He is a workhorse in the run game and has also been a steady hand as a receiver.

With Chase on the sidelines, there are fewer options for Joe Burrow on the field. Chase caught 27.6% of the Bengals’ targets and now the defensive focus will shift to limiting Tee Higgins.

That should lead to a couple of extra checks for Mixon, who has surpassed that number in back-to-back games. He’s averaging five targets and 26 receiving yards per game while Chase is healthy, a number I expect to approach 30 in his absence.


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In Mixon’s lone game against Cleveland last year, he caught five passes for 46 yards. In 2020, he caught four for 40.

The Browns defense is also giving up an average of 26 yards per game to running backs. In a coin toss game with a 3.5 point spread, the Bengals could also find themselves in a late game script. That should only benefit Mixon.

Our Action Network projections have that number closer to 24 yards, so there’s some value there. There’s a lot of uncertainty about how the Bengals’ offense will fare without their star Chase, but this is the perfect place to buy low on Mixon, who the Bengals love to involve in any way possible.


Quickslip: Joe Mixon over 21.5 receiving yards


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To pick up
Tyler Boyd less than 61.5 receiving yards
Best Book
time
8:15 p.m. ET

Nick Bretwisch: With Chase sidelined with injury for a couple of weeks, the Tyler Boyd hype throughout the betting and fantasy industry seems to be gaining traction. I see tonight’s matchup against the Browns as a potential opportunity to blow off that steam and go under 61.5. receiving yards.

Not a big play, by any means, but my Adjusted Expected Total Yards model has a little Boyd fading in this spot, as it projects just 55 yards. The Browns secondary is pretty broken, so I’d rather wait to move on it until the inactive report comes out. If slot cornerback Greg Newsome is active, I’ll go underneath.

The Browns will likely play a lot of man coverage mixed with some Cover 4 zone and a good bit of five or more pass rushers. Based on Joe Burrow’s recent history, this should benefit wide receiver X (tonight, it will be Higgins), tight end Hayden Hurst and Mixon.

Yes, we have some uncertainty with the core receiving roles tonight without Chase, but if Newsome is active, I’ll take a small position on the bottom and expect this game to be a little slower than what we’ve seen of the Bengals. of late


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To pick up
Tyler Boyd 4.5+ receptions (-165)
Best Book
time
8:15 p.m. ET

Ricky Henne: Chase and his 27.7% target share will miss Monday night’s game against the Browns. Enter Boyd, who is ready to pick up the slack.

Boyd would be the top pick for multiple teams, but his 38 targets rank fourth on the Bengals behind Chase (74), Higgins (44) and Hurst (39). He has completed 27 of the passes thrown for a 76.3% catch percentage, which ranks eighth among all receivers with at least 20. receptionsaccording to Pro Football Reference.

Boyd will draw more difficult assignments with Chase on the sidelines. Don’t expect that to stop Burrow from targeting him, especially after last week’s dominant performance. the atlanta Falcons had no answer for Boyd, who caught eight of nine passes for 155 yards and one landing.

The underlying numbers also suggest the wideout is capable of much more. Football Outsiders ranks him as the No. 1 wide receiver in DVOA and VOA, third in YAR and fourth in DYAR.

Burrow’s show should continue well even without Chase, and all signs point to Boyd being one of the main reasons. Expect Burrow to look for it often against the division rival Browns.


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To pick up
Browns team total under 21.5
Best Book
time
8:15 p.m. ET

Dylan Wilkerson: The Battle of the Buckeye State, The Scuffle of I-75, Skyline Chili vs. the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

However you view this interstate battle, there is no doubt that this showdown will have lasting implications for the AFC North. The Bengals looked to have returned to true form last week against the Falcons, while the Browns lost a close divisional game to the crows.

The Bengals have a number of offensive weapons at their disposal, but Cincinnati’s potential transcends its offense. Defensively, the Bengals are allowing just 1.6 points per drive. On top of that, Cincy is among the NFL’s best in red-stops and third-down and fourth-down. Cleveland loves to score on its running backs, but the Bengals have allowed just three rushing touchdowns this season. If the Browns are able to get a drive going, it’s likely to be reversed with a goal-line stop.

The Browns turn the ball over on 12% of their possessions and have given up over 350 yards of offensive penalties. We’re betting on this Cleveland Browns offense to get stops hard and often.


Quickslip: Browns Team Total Under 21


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