College Football Playoff: Projecting the early 2022 seedings
Forty names, games, teams and tidbits that make the news in college football (the mergers of eight business volumes are sold separately in the Atlantic Coast Conference: Coral Gables and Winston-Salem, specifically):
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Second term
The Playoff Qualifiers are coming up… Prepare accordingly
Tuesday night, we kick off the final season of this hit ESPN series, Adventures in America uselessly antagonizing, also known as the College Football Playoff Rankings. It serves no purpose other than providing programming for ESPN and hurting fans everywhere. Here are five weeks of ranking revelations that don’t matter, until the one that does: Selection Sunday on December 4th.
But these rankings will resonate, even if they don’t. So The Dash will join the audience Tuesday night to see what the CFP selection committee thinks about the 2022 season so far. Before that, here are the six biggest questions that need answers:
How realistic it is a 75% SEC solution (11)? Of course, the league has already made plenty of strides, winning three straight titles and enjoying two CFP championship games pitting conference members against each other. But can the league up the ante and block three out of four offers?
For now, it is possible. Tennessee (8–0) i Georgia (8–0) are virtually certain to be in the top four of the first seeding. The whereabouts of 7-1 Alabama It will be interesting: The Crimson Tide lost by three points on the last play of the game against the Volunteers, but there have been a couple of other close calls and not many quality wins.
The league can end up with three one-loss teams if Alabama wins, including an SEC championship win: the 12-1 Crimson Tide, the winner of this week’s Tennessee-Georgia game, also 12-1, and the loser from that game to 11-1. (There are other games that could be lost en route to Selection Sunday, so this is all speculative.)
It’s a pretty strong hand. How the presumed third best of these teams would compare to the rest of the nation would be the big test. This seems likely: a national diversity selection committee would be under considerable pressure from the public and other conferences to find alternatives to giving up three-quarters of the Playoff to the SEC. For now, consider it possible but unlikely. (If it happens, you will absolutely see the upcoming 12-team playoff fast forward to 2024, not ’26 or ’25.)
And what about a Big Ten double (12)? The league has three teams with one or fewer losses: Ohio State (8–0), Michigan (8–0) i Illinois (7-1). If the CFP rankings reflect the polls and they have the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the top four, that’s a promising place to start. Illinois could be ranked higher by the committee than the human polls simply because they didn’t start the season out of the rankings and thus get suppressed by the vote.
The Big Ten can’t get all three to the finish line with one loss: Illinois plays Michigan on Nov. 19 and then Michigan faces Ohio State on Nov. 26. the league title game. But he could end up with any of the following combinations: league champion Illinois at 12–1 and league runner-up Ohio State at 12–1; or a 13–0 Michigan/Ohio State league champion with the loser of that game going 11–1.
In either case, the Big Ten would have its best case for two in the Playoff. But there could also be questions with their non-conference schedules and Illinois’ Big Ten West slate. Which brings us to question number 3.
What a problem it is Michigan’s woeful non-conference schedule (13)? The Wolverines started the season by blowing out Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut, three non-Power 5 teams that are a combined 8–18. And lest anyone forget, they chose to schedule that way, dropping a series with UCLA.
If Michigan finishes 13-0, the no-con cruise is moot — an undefeated Big Ten champion gets in. But at 12-1 or 11-1, there could be a price to pay for loading up on lightweights. Jim Harbaugh’s team is getting an unexpected strength of schedule boost from Nov. 19 rival Illinois and new competition Maryland, but a resume contest could be in store at the end.
how much ago did a loss of 46 points (14) hurt? This is the pursued question Oregon (7-1). The Ducks have been pretty dominant since the start of the season, but this debacle left a mark: they were shut out 49-3 in Atlanta by reigning national champion Georgia. Of the 32 teams that have made the playoff field, none had ever lost by anything close to that margin before the selection. The largest margins on record are Georgia by 23 points to Auburn in 2017 (a loss the Bulldogs avenged in the SEC championship game) and Notre Dame by 24 to Clemson in the 2020 ACC title game (an unusual circumstance in an unusual season) .
But give Oregon credit for agreeing to schedule this game and playing it with a first-year coach and a transfer quarterback playing his first game with the Ducks. Since the start, Oregon has outscored opponents by an average of 22.6 points and is the last undefeated in Pac-12 play. This is part of an auxiliary question: with three teams classified in the AP top 10, is the year the Pac-12 returns to the Playoffs for the first time since 2016? We’ll see if the committee sees the league the same way.
undefeated will TCU (15) i Clemson (16) be ahead of Alabama with a loss? In the current media and coaching polls, the Crimson Tide are ahead of the Horned Frogs and behind the Tigers. Meet up, Clemson is 3-0 against the rest of the top 25 AP. TCU is 2-0. Alabama is 0–1. It seems pretty cut and dry right now, but the Crimson Tide has plenty of cache and has played a tougher non-conference game (at Texas in September) than either of the other two teams. (TCU has a chance at a benchmark game against the Longhorns on Nov. 12.)
Alabama’s schedule is about to ramp up, against top 15 AP opponents LSU and Mississippi over the next two weeks. But for now, it seems to The Dash that the tide shouldn’t be higher than the seventh on Tuesday night.
Is here a Cinderella (17) in the mix? Almost certainly not, but if a rash of pesky losses erupts, the telescoping long shots would be Tulane (7-1) i freedom (7-1).
The Green Wave have a big win over No. 13 Kansas State and a chance to win three straight in the American Athletic Conference. If Tulane gets to the clubhouse 12–1 with a win over a K-State team that could play for (and win) the Big 12 title, plus a combined three wins over UCF and Cincinnati (one in the AAC title game), that’s not bad. As for the Liberty, the Flames are independents and thus are 12-game shutout, and their upcoming games against Power 5 opponents have lacked luster (Arkansas and Virginia Tech are a combined 7–9). But there’s no shame in their only loss so far: Liberty missed a two-point conversion short of beating Wake Forest 6-2 on the road.
Four for the playoff
Why wait until Tuesday night to see how the PPC should be seeded and placed? The Dash provides the weekly information right here, as always based on the theory that today is Selection Sunday.
Peach Bowl
- Top seed Tennessee (18) vs. fourth seed Ohio State (19)
The Volunteers (8–0) were very impressive in destroying Kentucky, 44–6, Saturday. It was Tennessee’s fourth straight game with 40 or more points, and it was the best performance yet by the Vols’ defense: season lows in total yards allowed (205) and yards per play (3.25 ). Next up for Tennessee: at Georgia in the SEC East Armageddon game.
The Buckeyes (8-0) had a big win, going on the road at Penn State and losing before exploding for 28 points in the final quarter. This was a strange game, a far cry from the quick knockouts of recent weeks, but it was also the best opponent Ohio State has faced thus far, and in a tough spot. Next up for Ohio State: Northwestern in what should be a blast to keep your eyes off.
Fiesta Bowl
- Second seed Georgia (20) against third seed Michigan
The Bulldogs (8–0) won an eventful Cocktail Party game against rival Florida in Jacksonville, jumping out to a 28–3 lead, only to see it cut to 28–20, then run away again in the end. Georgia topped seven rushing yards for the third straight game and Brock Bowers continued to reinforce that he is the nation’s best tight end (five catches for 154 yards). Next up for Georgia: Tennessee between the fences Saturday, amid massive betting.
The Wolverines (8-0) also played in a rivalry game, though the 29-7 win over Michigan State was completely. overshadowed by the post-match tunnel violence. Michigan was good in all three phases of the game, but again struggled in the red zone execution, kicking five field goals. Next up for Michigan: Saturday at Rutgers.
Dropped from last week: none
Also considered: TCU, Clemson, Ala.
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