Betting systems for the final of the regular season of the college football championship – VSiN exclusive news – News
In what seemed like the blink of an eye, we were down to the final regular season games for most FBS teams in college football. After this week, some teams will move on to conference championships and others to bowl games, but for many teams this coming weekend’s games are the end of the season. Undoubtedly, many emotions come with it, especially when we are talking about the celebration of the day of the elderly or the end of a sports career. There are even unique circumstances where teams don’t know what the future holds for them, as it may depend on how they perform in the final game. Obviously, the stakes in the season finale and the emotional drive teams bring to the games have a big impact on the results.
As a college football bettor myself, I know that special games, whether they are season openers, rivalry games, rematches or a combination of these and other factors, offer unique circumstances that warrant special consideration. So this was the perfect time to go back and look at recent data on teams playing in the regular season finale to see if I can spot any systemic advantages as we head into this week’s games. As with my other system articles, I analyzed home/road scenarios, line ranges, statistical team comparisons, and a few other variables.
I’ve managed to come up with eight very successful angles that have appeared in recent years in the final games of the college football season. This includes only scheduled regular season games, not conference championships or bowl games. Here they are, along with my theories on why they were successful and what games will happen this weekend.
CFB 1 Regular Season Finals System
HOME FAVORITES by more than 20 points are 51-5 SU since 2015, but just 22-34 ATS (39.3%) in regular season finals.
Analysis: In many regular season finals, the teams are either conference rivals or fierce rivals. It’s not a very favorable circumstance to earn a lot of points, as the underdogs usually get a lot of motivation both from that point of view and don’t want to end the season on a bad note.
Potential Teams for FADE in Week 13: GEORGIA (-35) vs. Georgia Tech, LIBERTY (-23.5) vs. New Mexico State, ALABAMA (-22) vs. Auburn
CFB Regular Season Finals System 2
Since 2015, HOME GUYS with 7 or more points are just 19-94 SU and 44-68-1 ATS (39.3%) in regular season finales.
Analysis: Teams playing in the final week of the season as heavy home underdogs are likely either not very good or hosting a quality team at some odds. In any case, these well-suited pet dogs do not live well.
Potential Teams for FADE in Week 13: WESTERN MICHIGAN (+8) vs. Toledo, CA (+10) vs. UCLA, IN (+11) vs. Purdue, FL MIAMI (+7) vs. PITTSBURGH, UMASS (+21) vs. ARMY, SOUTH FLORIDA (+19) vs. UCF, TEMPLE (+12) vs. EAST CAROLINA, FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+7) vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY, NORTHWESTERN (+14) vs. ILLINOIS, COLORADO (+30) vs. UTAH, LOUISIANA TECH (+17) vs. vs. UAB, TEXAS A&M (+10) vs. LSU, VANDERBILT (+15) vs. Tennessee, ARKANSAS STATE (+13.5) vs. Troy, FIU (+19.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
CFB Regular Season Finals System 3
In regular season finals since 2015, TEAMS scoring 43+ points are 33-7 SU and 25-14-1 ATS (64.1%) vs. teams scoring fewer points.
Analysis: It doesn’t make much sense to give up the most explosive offense in the final games of the regular season. This may be their last chance to impress the interviewers or the committee.
RETURNING Teams for Week 13: OHIO STATE (-7.5) vs. Michigan, Tennessee (-15) vs. Vanderbilt
CFB 4 Regular Season Finals System
In regular season finals since 2015 when the teams have been four wins or more apart, the BETTER TEAM has gone 118-14 SU and 75-56-1 ATS (57.3%). Digging deeper, when the BETTER TEAM was the ROAD TEAM in a matchup, the record was 58-9 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%).
Analysis: This is somewhat similar to #2 above, where it turns out that home field advantage wasn’t much when the home team is overwhelmed. In most cases, these top road teams play at high stakes, while the home team does not.
ROAD Teams RETURN for Week 13: UCLA (-10) vs. California, UCF (-19.5) vs. South Florida, ILLINOIS (-14) vs. Northwestern, LSU (-10) vs. Texas A&M, Tennessee (-15) vs. Vanderbilt, TROY (-13.5 ) against Arkansas State
CFB Regular Season Finals System 5
One of the more intriguing angles in the regular season finale involves teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility as they have five wins. Since 2015, when these five-win teams have faced teams with better records in the season finale, they have gone 23-32 SU, but 33-21-1 ATS (61.1%).
Analysis: Trying to make a bet on the cup at your last opportunity is obviously one of the greatest motivational factors for a college athlete. It’s the difference between winning and extending your season by a month, or just ending the game after a loss. Even against the best teams, these hungry teams come to play.
Teams BACKED against the spread in Week 13: MISSOURI (+3) vs. ARKANSAS, GEORGIA TECH (+35) at Georgia, MIAMI (+7) vs. Pittsburgh, MICHIGAN STATE (+18) at PA, Georgia Southern (+4.5) vs. Appalachian State, FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+ 7) vs. Western Kentucky, RICE (+14) at North Texas, VANDERBILT (+15) vs. Tennessee, AUBURN (+22) at Alabama, UTEP (+18) at UTSA
CFB 6 Regular Season Finals System
Underdogs in the college football season finale who score four or more points and have a better record than their opponent have gone just 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) over their last 18 attempts.
Analysis: This is a pretty rare occurrence, but it’s a classic trap … a team is better off playing as a good-sized underdog. Trust the odds experts to pave the way to profit.
FADE teams vs. the spread in Week 13: COASTAL CAROLINA (+13.5) at James Madison. Watch for LOUISVILLE (+3.5) at Kentucky and MINNESOTA (+3.5) at Wisconsin as those lines were within a half point of qualifying.
CFB 7 Regular Season Finals System
One of the best types of teams to fade away in the season finale has been winning teams that don’t score a lot of points, as teams with winning records and 24 points per game or fewer are just 10-14 SU and 5-19 ATS (20.8 %) in the regular season finale.
Analysis: There’s some solid basis for this, because a team with a winning record probably has questionable odds. They haven’t been able to do much offensively all season, why would it start in the finals?
Teams fading against the spread in Week 13: UTAH STATE (+16.5) at Boise State. IOWA (-10.5) vs. Nebraska Wyoming (+15) at Fresno KENTUCKY (-3.5) vs. Louisville MARSHALL (-6) vs. Georgia TROY (-13.5) at Arkansas SAN DIEGO ( +1.5) against the Air Force
CFB 8 Regular Season Finals System
College football’s regular season finale, expected to be a defensive contest, has been just that, with the UNDER going 12-1-1 (92.3%) in its last 14 with a final score under 40.
Analysis: Totals go under 40 in college football only when warranted, whether due to teams’ offensive ineptitude, their defensive prowess, the intense nature of the rivalry, or perhaps even inclement weather. Either way, don’t fight the obvious. The odds tell you this is going to be a low scoring game.
Games to play LESS than total in Week 13: New Mexico-Colorado State (35), Nebraska-Iowa (37.5), Minnesota-Wisconsin (34.5), Illinois-Northwestern (37 ). Watch the Virginia-Virginia Tech game, with exactly 40 posted at press time.
Week 13 AP Poll Ranking Systems
At the request of readers, I’ve used the ranking system from last week’s poll to show which games will be in play this week.
The following information was first published last week in my article on CFB systems for top 25 teams. There will be 21 games this week with ranked teams.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Data is based on the AP poll only, not the Coaches Poll or the CFP standings.
CFB AP 1 survey system
· In games involving two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS ARE NOW 140-69 SU and 119-84-6 ATS (58.6%).
Plays for Week 13: There will be four games this weekend featuring a pair of ranked teams: Tulane-Cincinnati, Oregon-Oregon, Michigan-Ohio, Notre Dame-USC
· Digging into this data, you’ll find that when the home team is ranked better, those teams are 81-14 SU and 58-34-3 ATS (63%). Ohio State and USC qualify for Week 13.
· To add another wrinkle to the final corner, when the top-ranked home teams were single-digit favorites or underdogs, they went 40-11 SU and 36-13-2 ATS (73.5%) since ’17. Ohio State and USC qualify for Week 13 AGAIN.
CFB AP Poll Rankings System 2
This week is officially Week 13 of the college football schedule.
In games in Week 12 or later in the season, road teams are now 90-23 SU and 66-45-2 ATS (59.5%) against unranked home teams since 2017. Games that qualify for Week 13 ROAD TEAM in CAPS: UCLA-California, UCF-South Florida, COASTAL CAROLINA-James Madison, UTAH-Colorado, WASHINGTON-Washington State, LSU-Texas A&M, TENNESSEE-Vanderbilt.
Digging into that data, you’ll find that when these RANKED ROAD TEAMS get outscored by more than six points against unranked hosts, they’re 76-9 SU and 52-31-2 ATS (62.7%%) in that same Week 12 and a later time period after going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS last week. Road ranked teams that meet the Week 13 criteria are UCLA, UCF, Utah, LSU and Tennessee.
CFB AP Poll Rankings System 3
In Week 12 games or later, there has been a huge discrepancy in the results of RANKED HOME TEAMS against unranked visitors on a 12-point favorite. As 12-point or more favorites, they’re 80-11 SU, but just 35-51-1 ATS (40.7%), but on every other line, including the underdog, they’re 27-2 SU and 21 -8 ATS (72.4%) %) since ’17. This latest entry includes Tulane’s win over SMU last week.
Home ranked teams playing as >= 12 point favorites against unranked opponents
* KANSAS STATE (-12) vs. Kansas
* GEORGIA (-35) vs. Georgia Tech
* CLEMSON (-14.5) vs. South Carolina
* PEN STATE (-18) vs. Michigan State
* ALABAMA (-22) vs. Auburn
Home-ranked teams playing as less than 12-point favorites against unranked opponents
* OLE MISS (-2.5) vs. Mississippi State
* NORTH CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. NC STATE
* TEXAS (-8.5) vs. Baylor
* FLORIDA STATE (-9.5) vs. Florida
* TCU (-10.5) vs. Iowa State
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