Freedman’s Favorites: Week 12 (2022 Fantasy Football)
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People generally prefer for sports analysts to stick to sports … but here’s the thing: I’m serious about food. I think of eating as a sport.
And in my book that makes Thanksgiving the Olympics.
So we’re firmly in the world of sports, and at FantasyPros we’re all about them rankings — so here are my official pie rankings for the Thanksgiving of 2022, ordered from worst to first.
No. 25: Mincemeat Pie
How is this even a pie? Just the very idea of this is disgusting. If you want to put actual meat in a pie, fine — but then make sure it’s a chicken pot pie or something similar and definitely don’t act as if it’s a dessert.
No. 24: Bean Pie
So close to being pumpkin pie or sweet potato pie … but it’s not.
No. 23: Custard Pie
Custard is bad enough on its own.
No. 22: Orange Pie
Fantastic, except for the oranges. This just feels like a waste of good oranges and good pie crust.
No. 21: Rhubarb Pie
No. 20: Strawberry Pie
No. 19: Strawberry-Rhubarb Pie
These can be listed in any order … because they’re all the same pie. I won’t be convinced otherwise.
No. 18: Banana Cream Pie
No. 17: Coconut Cream Pie
No. 16: Lemon Meringue Pie
Good for cleansing the palate between servings of heartier (aka “real”) pies.
No. 15: Grasshopper Pie
Looks sort of like key lime pie, but isn’t.
No. 14: Chocolate Cream Pie
We’ve officially entered “high-end QB2″/streaming territory.
No. 13: Turtle Pie
No. 12: French Silk Pie
No. 11: Dulce de Leche Ice Cream Pie
These all seem sort of the same. They’re not triplets, but maybe they’re siblings?
No. 10: Any Berry Pie That Isn’t Blueberry or Strawberry Pie
I don’t think this really requires any comment or analysis, aside from this Seinfeld clip.
No. 9: Blueberry Pie
Great with strawberry ice cream and whipped cream for the Fourth of July and every other day of the year.
No. 8: Peanut Butter Pie
Best if consumed with milk.
No. 7: Peach Pie
My go-to dessert in high school.
No. 6: Pear Pie
If your mother-in-law makes it, you have to put it in the top 10, no?
No. 5: Apple Pie
There are so many varieties of apple pie, and they’re all good.
No. 4: Key Lime Pie
My other go-to dessert in high school.
No. 3: Pecan Pie
Not the kind you buy at the store. Made at home with pecans from Texas, bourbon from Kentucky, and a recipe from Louisiana.
No. 2: Cherry Pie
Any day of the year other than Thanksgiving, and this might be No. 1.
No. 1: Pumpkin Pie & Sweet Potato Pie
There’s a difference between pumpkin pie and sweet potato pie — but I can’t really taste difference. Pie is pie.
I hope you enjoy yours this Thanksgiving.
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 12
Here are my Week 12 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 11 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added per play (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch), expected fantasy points (FPx), fantasy point overperformance (FPOP).
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (BUF) at DET: Bills -9.5 | 54.5 O/U
- Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 AY/A) has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the 2020-21 dominator (7.6 AY/A) — but he has had an elite fantasy floor with 24-226-2 rushing since Week 8.
- For the season, Allen is still the No. 2 quarterback with 25.8 FPPG (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report).
- The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (24.0 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
- For his career, Allen is 20-11-2 ATS on the road (per Action Network).
- The Bills have a week-high 32-point implied total in our Week 12 DFS cheat sheet.
Justin Herbert (LAC) at ARI: Chargers -4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- With the return of No. 1 WR Keenan Allen last week, Herbert had one of his best performances of the season (280-2-1 passing, 76.7% completion rate, 9.2 AY/A).
- The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (53.4%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Joe Burrow (CIN) at TEN: Bengals -1.5 | 42.5 O/U
- Burrow started slowly in Weeks 1-5 (20.0 FPPG, 6.7 AY/A), but since Week 6 he has dominated (26.8 FPPG, 9.4 AY/A), despite playing without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip) since Week 8.
- The Titans are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (20.1 FPPG).
- Have gunslinger, will travel: Burrow is 14-7 ATS on the road for his career (including playoffs).
Most pass TD of 30+ yards since start of 2021
Joe Burrow 22
Derek Carr 12
Patrick Mahomes 11 pic.twitter.com/SGLgqPYg6w
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 22, 2022
Geno Smith (SEA) vs. LV: Seahawks -3.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (72.8%) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.149) and AY/A (8.3) — just as we all expected before the season started.
- Smith is now the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year (-135 at DraftKings).
- At home in Seattle, Smith is 5-1 ATS and should be rested and ready off the Week 11 bye.
- Smith has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.224) and pass DVOA (32.5%, per Football Outsiders).
You can guess how many points Smith will score in the Week 12 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) vs. ATL: Commanders -4 | 42 O/U
- Heinicke had season-low marks last week in completions (15), pass attempts (27) and yards (191 passing, 2 rushing) — but the Commanders offense has improved with him as the starter (22.4 points per game, Weeks 7-11 vs. 17.0, Weeks 1-6).
- The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.129) and pass DVOA (18.4%) and are without No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR).
Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. CHI: Jets -4.5 | 39.5 O/U
- “The night is darkest just before the dawn.”
- “Not all who wander are lost.”
- “Do you feel like you let the defense down at all?” “No.”
- Who am I kidding? — Wilson is horrible (5.5 AY/A for career), but the Bears have a quarterback-friendly defense that ranks No. 31 in dropback EPA (0.197).
- If ever there were a bounceback spot, this is it.
.@Connor_J_Hughes: “Do you feel like you let the defense down at all?”
Zach Wilson: “No.” pic.twitter.com/tiJiTSrFPE
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) November 20, 2022
Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (LAC) at ARI: Chargers -4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (No. 2 with 21.6 FPPG), and for the year he has 971 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage in 10 games (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report).
- Ekeler is No. 5 with a nice 69 receptions (including wide receivers and tight ends) and No. 1 at the position with 83 targets (per our Weekly Target Report).
- Pacing to break Christian McCaffrey’s running back record of 116 receptions in a season, Ekeler is an elite pass catcher.
- The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (31.0%).
Austin Ekeler is pacing for 141 targets, 117 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey holds the single-season records with 142 & 116 (2019, 16 games).
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 23, 2022
Kenneth Walker (SEA) vs. LV: Seahawks -3.5 | 47.5O/U
- Since No. 1 RB Rashaad Penny (leg, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5, Walker has gone off with 618 yards and seven touchdowns on 106 carries and 17 targets in six games.
- Walker should be fresh off the Week 11 bye, and he could see extra carries as a home favorite (-195 at BetRivers).
- The Raiders are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (24.0 FPPG).
Aaron Jones (GB) at PHI: Packers +7 | 46.5 O/U
- Among all lead backs, Jones is No. 1 in the league with a 52.2% Rush Percentage Over Expected (per Next Gen Stats).
- Despite splitting work with No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon and playing in an underperforming offense (18.4 points per game, No. 26), Jones has 1,026 yards and five touchdowns on 143 carries and 49 targets in 11 games.
- The Eagles are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (46.6%).
Tony Pollard (DAL) vs. NYG: Cowboys -9.5 | 45.5 O/U
- Even with so-called No. 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) back last week, Pollard led the Cowboys backfield with 15-80-0 rushing, 6-109-2 receiving (on 6 targets) and a 54% snap rate.
- Over his past four games, Pollard has 573 yards and six touchdowns on 63 carries and 15 targets.
- Of all backs with 100-plus carries, Pollard is No. 1 with 2.8 yards after contact per attempt (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- The Giants are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (4.6%).
Tony Pollard has gone OVER his Rushing Yards Prop Line in five consecutive games, per the @BettingPros Prop Bet Analyzer.
In four of those games, he’s gone over by at least 33.5 yards. pic.twitter.com/ovizcmV9bV
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) November 22, 2022
Jeff Wilson (MIA) vs. HOU: Dolphins -13 | 46 O/U
- In his first two games with the Dolphins, Wilson out-snapped (70 vs. 46), out-opportunitied (34 vs. 23) and out-produced (215 yards, 2 touchdowns vs. 113 yards, 2 touchdowns) once-and-future teammate Raheem Mostert in Weeks 9-10.
- Wilson should know even more of the playbook out of the Week 11 bye, and he could have a large workload as a massive home favorite (-600 at BetMGM).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (28.9 FPPG).
- The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS at home with QB Tua Tagovailoa for his career.
Check out my Week 12 early betting preview on Dolphins vs. Texans.
I’m taking over 10.5 fantasy points on Wilson in the Week 12 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Miles Sanders (PHI) vs. GB: Eagles -7 | 46.5 O/U
- Sanders has underwhelmed with 102 scoreless yards over the past two weeks, but for the year he still has an even 800 yards and six touchdowns in 156 carries and 15 targets in 10 games.
- The Eagles are No. 5 with a 50.9% rush rate and could have a run-heavy game script as big home favorites (-295 at FanDuel).
- Under HC Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are 6-1-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Packers are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.2%) and rush DVOA (6.7%).
Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. BUF: Lions +9.5 | 54.5 O/U
- No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) is dealing with injuries and has seen limited usage (18 carries, 15 targets) in four games since returning to action in Week 8.
- Even with Swift active, Williams has 280 yards and six touchdowns (plus a two-point conversion) on 67 carries and three targets over the past month.
- Williams is No. 1 in the league with 12 touchdowns rushing overall and 19 carries inside the five-yard line.
- Under HC Dan Campbell, the Lions are 17-9 ATS as underdogs.
Jamaal Williams is a touchdown MACHINE 🎰 pic.twitter.com/gL8zoNW6mS
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 22, 2022
Check out my Week 12 early betting preview on Lions vs. Bills.
Devin Singletary (BUF) at DET: Bills -9.5 | 54.5 O/U
- With QB Josh Allen (elbow) suffering from an injury, the Bills have pivoted away from using him as a goal-line thumper and instead over the past two weeks have given Singletary all four of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line, which he has converted into three touchdowns (per our Red Zone Stats Report).
- Since the Week 7 bye, Singletary has averaged a solid 13.3 carries and 2.8 targets per game with a snap rate of no less than 70% in any contest.
- Singletary could see a heavy workload as a big favorite (-430 at Caesars).
- The Lions are No. 30 in rush EPA (0.042).
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. NYG: Cowboys -9.5 | 45.5 O/U
- In his return to action last week, Elliott (knee) played just 21 snaps — but he had a league-best 76% utilization rate with 15 carries and one target (per our Snap Count Analysis Report).
- Aside from a tough Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers, Elliott has 14-plus opportunities in every game played this year.
- Elliott could have heavy usage as a big home favorite (-375 at PointsBet).
- With QB Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are 23-8 ATS in division.
Over his past 2 games, Ezekiel Elliott has 62 snaps, 30 carries (6 inside the 10-yard line), 3.3 yards per carry, and 4 TDs.
He has officially entered the Jerome Bettis phase of his career.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 22, 2022
Rachaad White (TB) at CLE: Buccaneers -3.5 | 43 O/U
- White got his first career start ahead of veteran Leonard Fournette in Week 10, and he leveraged his opportunity into career-high marks with 22 carries, 105 yards and a 64% snap rate.
- Fournette (hip) is dealing with an injury and has been wildly inefficient this year (3.4 yards per carry), so he could see limited usage out of the Week 11 bye.
- The Browns are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.129) and rush DVOA (11.4%).
Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. HOU: Dolphins -13 | 46 O/U
- Hill is No. 1 in the league with a 22% target rate per snap, 1,148 yards receiving, 81 receptions overall, 47 receptions of 10-plus yards and 20 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- Hill is rightfully the non-quarterback frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year (+250 consensus on our BettingPros odds page).
- I have Hill slated for a position-high 17.7 fantasy points in my Week 12 player projections.
- The Texans are No. 32 in defensive pass against No. 1 wide receivers (29.1%) and could be without No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring), who missed last week with injury.
- Hill is one of our top Week 11 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tyreek Hill on 20+ yard targets
🚀 14 catches (1st)
🚀 473 yards (1st)
🚀 96.5 receiving grade pic.twitter.com/T3eO3pefPF
— PFF (@PFF) November 17, 2022
Stefon Diggs (BUF) at DET: Bills -9.5 | 54.5 O/U
- Diggs is the only NFL player with 160-plus targets in each of the past two years, and he has 104 targets in 10 games this year.
- Diggs is No. 1 at the position with six top-eight weekly finishes.
- The Lions are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.176) and seem likely to be without No. 1 CB Jeff Okudah (concussion).
Davante Adams (LV) at SEA: Raiders +3.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Last week, Adams lit up our Game Day app with a position-best performance, scoring 29.6 fantasy points on 7-141-2 receiving with 13 targets.
- Adams is No. 1 in the league with a 32.2% target share and is also No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (FPx) per game over the past month (17.7) and for the season (17.0, per my Expected Fantasy Points Leaderboard).
Davante Adams in his last 3 games:
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) November 22, 2022
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. NYG: Cowboys -9.5 | 45.5 O/U
- Lamb started the season slowly with 104 scoreless yards on nine receptions and one carry in Weeks 1-2, but he has 49-647-5 receiving and 4-6-0 rushing in eight games since then, and for the year he has a dominant 93 targets.
- Against the Giants in Week 3 he had 8-87-1 receiving on 12 targets with backup QB Cooper Rush.
- The Giants seem likely to be without starting CBs Adoree’ Jackson (knee) and Fabian Moreau (oblique).
Tee Higgins (CIN) at TEN: Bengals -1.5 | 42.5 O/U
- Minus the two contests in which he was markedly impacted by injuries (Weeks 1 & 5), Higgins has had 48-685-3 receiving on 69 targets in eight games.
- No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip) has been out since Week 8 and is uncertain to return to action for Week 12.
- The Titans are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.6 FPPG) and are dealing with injuries to CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and Elijah Molden (groin) and FSs Amani Hooker (shoulder) and Lonnie Johnson (hamstring).
Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. NO: 49ers -9.5 | 43 O/U
- The one touchdown leaves something to be desired, but Samuel has 199 yards on 22 targets and eight carries in three games with RB Christian McCaffrey: There’s enough ball to go around for both players to produce.
- The Saints are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (15.9%) and will likely be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), who has been out since Week 6.
Deebo Samuel really said 🏃♂️💨
— Mojo Markets (@mojo) November 22, 2022
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) vs. LV: Seahawks -3.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 7 early with what seemed to be a serious knee injury, Metcalf somehow suited up for Week 8 and has 17-163-2 receiving on 25 targets in three games since then.
- The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.5%).
Gabe Davis (BUF) at DET: Bills -9.5 | 54.5 O/U
- Davis is a boom/bust producer (four weeks in the top 13, five outside the top 30, per RotoViz), but his big-play ability (9.8 yards per target for career, 11.1 this year) is undeniable.
- This is a boom matchup, as the Lions are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (31.7 FPPG).
Tyler Lockett (SEA) vs. LV: Seahawks -3.5 | 47.5 O/U
- With 54-640-5 receiving, Lockett is on pace for his fifth consecutive season with at least 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
- Lockett has an elite matchup against slot CBs Amik Robertson (10.1 yards per target, 70.4% catch rate allowed) and Tyler Hall (18 coverage snaps for his career).
Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs. ATL: Commanders -4 | 42 O/U
- Since Week 7 — when backup QB Taylor Heinicke took over for injured starter Carson Wentz (pride/finger, IR) — McLaurin has been the best version of himself with 28-425-1 receiving on 43 targets in five games.
- In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin had 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
- The Falcons are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (34.4 FPPG).
Michael Pittman (IND) vs. PIT: Colts -2.5 | 39 O/U
- Since QB Matt Ryan’s Week 10 reinstallment as the starter, Pittman has an acceptable 16 targets, which he has leveraged into 13-128-0 receiving.
- The Steelers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (36.0 FPPG) and could be without CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), who last played in Week 8.
Keenan Allen (LAC) at ARI: Chargers -4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- In his Week 11 return from a hamstring injury that had previously limited him to just 45 snaps all year, Allen had 5-94-0 receiving on eight targets.
- No. 2 WR Mike Williams (ankle) aggravated an injury last week and is uncertain for Week 12.
- The Cardinals could be without No. 1 CB Byron Murphy (back), who has missed each of the past two weeks.
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 21, 2022
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) vs. LAR: Chiefs -14.5 | 44 O/U
- Smith-Schuster (concussion) exited Week 10 with an injury and missed Week 11, so he’s far from certain to suit up this week, but in Weeks 1-9 he led the Chiefs wide receivers in snaps (421), targets (60), receptions (44), yards receiving (582) and yards after contact (348).
- Even with No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (20.6%).
Nico Collins (HOU) at MIA: Texans +13 | 46 O/U
- Since his Week 10 return from a groin injury, Collins has effectively been the No. 1 wide receiver ahead of Brandin Cooks with a position-high 98 snaps and 17 targets, which he has leveraged into 10-97-1 receiving.
- In his seven full games this year he has averaged a livable 6.3 targets.
- The Dolphins are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.136) and pass DVOA (20.5%).
Okay Nico Collins okay pic.twitter.com/RPSkSCh8Sp
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 14, 2022
Demarcus Robinson (BAL) at JAX: Ravens -4 | 43.5 O/U
- Robinson was limited in Week 9 with a groin injury, but after getting healthy in the Week 10 bye he flashed last week with a team-best 9-128-0 receiving on nine targets without No. 1 WR Rashod Bateman (foot, IR).
- The Jaguars are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (21.8%).
Mack Hollins (LV) at SEA: Raiders +3.5 | 47.5 O/U
- In his four games this year without No. 2 WR Hunter Renfrow (oblique, IR), Hollins has averaged 65.3 yards receiving on 7.5 targets (per FTN).
- The Seahawks are No. 29 in pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (23.3%).
Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. LAR: Chiefs -14.5 | 44 O/U
- Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 18.9 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (12.2): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous.
- Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 21 red-zone targets, 34 receptions of 10-plus yards and 14 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
- With 16.9 FPx per game for the past month and 15.5 for the season, Kelce is essentially a wide receiver at the tight end position.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. NE: Vikings -2.5 | 42.5 O/U
- In his three games with the Vikings, Hockenson has had 27 targets, which he has leveraged into 21-149-0 receiving.
- With the Patriots focused on No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson, Hockenson could continue to see heavy usage.
Pet Freiermuth (PIT) at IND: Steelers -2.5 | 39 O/U
- Since the Week 9 bye, Freiermuth leads the Steelers with 19 targets, 12 receptions and 115 yards receiving.
- Over the past three games, Freiermuth has played much more as a conventional receiver with 58 routes in the slot and out wide vs. 61 inline (compared to 55 and 125 in his first six games).
In two games since the Chase Claypool trade, things are looking prettyyyy pretty good for Pat Freiermuth.
– 86% route involvement
– 30% target share
– 32% air yardage share
Are there five TE’s that you’d rather roster? Kelce/Andrews… Hockenson, probably. Idk beyond that.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
Dalton Schultz (DAL) vs. NYG: Cowboys -9.5 | 45.5 O/U
- Over the past month, Schultz trails only Travis Kelce at the position with 10.4 FPx per game.
- The Giants are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (30.7%) and without S Xavier McKinney (hand, PUP).
Foster Moreau (LV) at SEA: Raiders +3.5 | 47.5 O/U
- In his five games this year without No. 1 TE Darren Waller (hamstring, IR), Moreau has 15-177-1 receiving on 26 targets.
- The Seahawks are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (16.5 FPPG).
Freedman’s Former Favorites
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