USC vs. Utah: Pac-12 Championship Game Preview, Prediction
It all comes down to Friday when USC and Utah meet in the Pac-12 championship game, at least for one of the teams.
The Trojans will be looking for a spot in the College Football Playoff if they can beat the Utes and avenge their only loss of the season in what is sure to be a one-loss conference champion and what will be the school’s first bid to the semifinals.
Utah, the defending Pac-12 champion, earned the No. 2 seed in this game in the final week of the regular season thanks to a three-way tiebreaker over Oregon and Washington and a blowout that knocked USC out of the playoffs.
Here’s what you need to know about the game, along with our prediction for who will win and why.
USC vs. Utah: Pac-12 Championship Game Preview, Prediction
How to watch
When: Friday, December 2
Time: 8pm EST
TV: Fox Network
Stream: fuboTV (Try it for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines provided by SI Sportsbook and subject to change after publication
Point Spread: USC enters the game as a narrow 2.5-point favorite against Utah, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 68 points
Cash line: USC -150 | Utah +115
FPI Forecast: According to the Football Power Index computer, which picks winners by simulating teams’ seasons 20,000 times, Utah has a 61.2 percent advantage to win the matchup against USC. According to the model, USC has a 38.8 percent field advantage.
USC vs. Utah: What you need to know
1. What protection is there? The last time these teams met, Utah won by 1 point, but not without a fight. It came down to Cameron Rising’s one-yard scamper and two-point run with less than a minute left. That’s after both teams combined for 85 points and 1,118 yards. Given how strong both of these offenses are, the defense that makes the most stops in the second half wins. Utah’s advantage against a USC team that ranks 91st nationally in total defense and ranks 15th nationally in the latest rankings is allowing 6.17 yards per game.
2. The Heisman leader. Caleb Williams picked the best time to play his best football, entering the early ranks of the Heisman race with a skill set that’s tough for quarterbacks to stop. The USC quarterback has 44 touchdowns to just three interceptions this season, working with skill leaders and behind an offensive line that PFF ranks as the 10th best in college football. One weakness? He can get rattled under pressure, hitting just 50% of his shots when not working from a clean pocket. That will be the No. 1 job for Utah’s front seven.
3. USC’s backs vs. Utah’s front. In order for USC to take full advantage of its offensive prowess, it needs to balance things out to take some of the pressure off Williams and spread the Utah defensive line. Travis Dye’s lack of leadership doesn’t help, but Austin Jones has played well in his place, rushing for 154 yards on 25 carries in a win over Notre Dame and 120 on 21 attempts against UCLA. Utah has not allowed more than 70 yards in four of its last five games and ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12 in third down defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense and time of possession.
USC vs. Utah: Quick facts
+ Utah ranks 4th in the nation with an average of 26.4 first downs per game
+ USC ranks 3rd in the nation in offensive efficiency and 91st in defensive efficiency
+ The Utes are the only team in the Pac-12 ranked in the top 20 nationally in both offense and defense
+ The Trojans are No. 1 in the nation with a plus-23 turnover margin
+ Utah is holding opponents to 15.5 first downs per game, 11th in the nation
+ USC is 2nd in the nation in third down conversions (.553)
+ Utah ranks 10th in the nation in scoring average at 39.4 points per game
+ Southern California ranks 3rd in college football with 42.5 points per game and 5th in total offense (506.6 ypg)
+ Utah ranks 8th in FBS in third down conversion rate (.503)
+ USC leads the nation in turnover margin at 1.92 per game
+ Utah ranks 5th in the nation in sacks and TFLs allowed
+ Caleb Williams leads all players in scoring with 22.0 points per game
USC vs. Utah: Pick, Prediction
USC has played a Jekyll and Hyde defense all season, consistently giving up yards to opponents, allowing more than 300 passing yards in five of its last six games, but also running the ball more than any other team in the country.
The Rising has all the strength to get around the Trojans’ pass rush group in passing games, and tight end Dalton Kincaid has already split that defense in half with over 200 yards passing in the first meeting.
If there’s such a thing as momentum, USC has it right now. Playing his best offense behind the Heisman favorite at quarterback, he has the ability to get past the Utah defense and should get a break with Utah running back Tavion Thomas sitting out as he prepares for the NFL draft.
College Football Headquarters Prediction: USC 37, Utah 34
More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | Schedule | All teams
Follow College Football Headquarters: Bookmark | Ratings | Facebook
#USC #Utah #Pac12 #Championship #Game #Preview #Prediction
