Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday

Flow Team: The Trail Blazers won’t have it Damian Lillard in the lineup against the Jazz tonight with a calf injury. Josh Hart It is also likely to miss the contest, which skips Justifies Winslow (95% available in ESPN leagues) in a bigger role. Winslow has averaged 15 points and more than a dozen assists and rebounds combined for Portland over the past week. Trendon Watford (99%) had a double-double last time out and could help in really deep leagues or those looking for a point game for DFS competition. Speaking of accessories, Anfernee Simons he’s in a good place to live up to his scoring and shooting needs, as he’s averaged 28 points and 11.5 3-pointers in his last four games without Lillard in the lineup.

Magic Markelle: Orlando hasn’t had true core talent in the rotation for much of the season, but the return Markelle Fultz (available in 90% of ESPN leagues) changes things. He logged nearly 30 minutes and had a game-high six assists last night and is a smart rebounder.

— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

game of the night

Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks
12:30 pm ET, Madison Square Garden, New York

line: Mavericks (-1.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-125), Knicks (+105)
Total: 225 points
Expected Total BPI: 227.8 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (55.4%)

questionable: Kemba Walker
Discarded: Ryan Archdeacon (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Tim Hardaway Jr (listed in 10.2% of ESPN leagues) Hardaway will continue to deploy as a streamer. He played 31 minutes or more and scored 34 or more fantasy points in back-to-back games and the Knicks ranked 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Mitchell Robinson (registered in 57% of ESPN leagues). Robinson is healthy and his play has trended upward over the past three games. He has played 30+ minutes and scored 40 or more fantasy points in two of them. — Changing mood

Breaking the rest of the board

Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers
4:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

line: Clippers (-2)
Money line: Clippers (-130), Kings (+110)
Total: 225.5 points
Expected Total BPI: 229.6 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (53.5%)

questionable: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
Discarded: Norman Powell, Luke Kennard,
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Malik Monk (listed in 12.6% of ESPN leagues). Monk has only averaged 22.5 MPG so far, but has been very efficient. He has averaged 26.8 fantasy points per game this season and has scored at least 40 fantasy points in three of the last four games. — Changing mood

Fantasy streamer: Terence Mann (listed in 5.7% of ESPN leagues). Mann is on the streaming radar with Norman Powell ruled out with a left groin strain against the Kings. Mann will absorb a significant percentage of those minutes and has averaged 15.0 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per 40 minutes this season. — Changing mood

Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets
6 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

line: dollars (-6.5)
Money line: Bucks (-250), Hornets (+205)
Total: 224.5 points
Expected Total BPI: 241.1 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (66.4%)

Discarded: Serge Ibaka (disease), Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle), LaMelo dance (ankle), Gordon Hayward (shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Mason Plumlee (registered in 18.3% of ESPN leagues) Plumlee is a solid streamer even though his fantasy production is inconsistent. He is averaging 27.4 minutes and 26.2 fantasy points per game. Plumlee is a great option for fantasy managers who need 18 or more points. — Changing mood

Best bet: Bucks -6.5. The Bucks are 13th in points scored per 100 possessions and first in points allowed per 100 possessions. Chris Middleton made his season debut Friday night and had a solid performance. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS when scoring over 115.4 points and the Hornets rank 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Changing mood

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
8:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

line: Raptors (-10.5)
Money line: Raptors (-105), magic (+400)
Total: 217 points
Expected Total BPI: 227.1 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (84.4%)

Discarded: I’m Bamba (back), Gary Harris (hamstring), Chuma Okeke (knee), Jalen Suggs (ankle), Wendell Carter Jr. (foot), Jonathan Isaac (hamstring), Otto Porter Jr. (point of foot)
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Moritz Wagner (listed in 0.5% of ESPN leagues). Wagner is on the streaming radar while Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. they are out He has played more than 26 minutes and scored more than 21 fantasy points in three of his last four games. — Changing mood

Oklahoma City Thunder at The Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

line: Timberwolves (-5.5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-225), Thunder (+185)
Total: 232.5 points
Expected Total BPI: 232.1 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (69.8%)

questionable: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (hip),
Discarded: Prince Taurus, Jordan McLaughlin, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Muscala (said)
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Naz Reid (listed in 0.9% of ESPN leagues) Reid is back on the streaming radar with Karl-Anthony Towns set to miss the next four to six weeks. The presence of Rudy Gobert limits Reid’s fantasy ceiling, but remains a player to consider in deeper formats. Reid has averaged 22.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per 40 minutes this season. — Changing mood

Best bet: Anthony Edwards more than 25.5 points. Edwards scored 29 points Wednesday night, his fourth straight game with 25 or more points. Edwards has averaged 36.6 minutes per game this season, which should be enough to top 25.5 points. — Changing mood

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
8:30 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

line: Warriors (-9)
Money line: Warriors (-430), Rockets (+328)
Total: 232 points
Expected Total BPI: 244 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (76.2%)

Discarded: Jae’Sean Tate
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Jabari Smith Jr. (registered in 39.7% of ESPN leagues). Despite a slow start to the season, Smith Jr. he’s playing really well right now. Has scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of his last six games. With the Warriors ranked eighth in points scored per 100 possessions, Smith Jr. should be a key player for the Rockets on Saturday night. — Changing mood

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

line: Jazz (-4.5)
Money line: Jazz (-190), Blazers (+158)
Total: 227 points
Expected Total BPI: 236.5 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (76.2%)

questionable: Josh Hart, Drew Eubanks
Discarded: Gary Payton II, Nassir Petit, Keon Johnson, Damian Lillard
Note: BPI numbers take into account players who are ruled out but questionable players are expected to play

Fantasy streamer: Justifies Winslow (listed in 4.4% of ESPN leagues) has performed well since joining the Trail Blazers’ starting lineup. Has scored 20 or more fantasy points in five consecutive games. Winslow is firmly on the streaming radar with Damian Lillard he is out with a calf injury. — Changing mood

Best Bet: Over 226.5. Both the Jazz and Trail Blazers rank in the top half of the league in points scored per 100 possessions. Utah has scored 115 or more points 14 times this season and three of the Jazz and Blazers’ last five games have gone over that total. That trend is likely to continue on Saturday. — Changing mood

Analytical advantage

Higher projected BPI totals

1. Houston Rockets (127.9)
2.Sacramento Kings (123)
3. Utah Jazz (122.2)

Lower projected BIS totals

1. Orlando Magic (108)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (113.2)
3. New York Knicks (113.2)

Highest probability of winning BPI (outright)

1. Toronto Raptors (84.4%)
2. Golden State Warriors (76.2%)
3. Utah Jazz (76.2%)