Top 5 Anti-Spread Picks
Top 5 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Predictions. What seems like the best choice?
The Wild Card round is a buffet of different carbs and fillers. The division round has prime ribs and crab legs.
That’s all. That’s it for hardcore NFL types. The Super Bowl … your mom is watching the Super Bowl. Championship Sunday is a big one, but we get the best grassroots games this weekend. Four of them, each living his own life.
I’ll try to find the five best picks among them against the spread – and total points.
As I mentioned in the Wild Card round, with so few games to choose from, a reasonable goal is to bat .600, and I accomplished that last week 3-2 thanks to Dallas’ emphatic win over Tampa Bay and an easy Jacksonville Peasy game Walk in the Park will win – and more – against the Chargers (eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee)
I overestimated Buffalo, underestimated San Francisco, and I might just do it again — at least with the last one — starting with…
Click on each game for a preview
5. NFL Playoffs: Dallas to San Francisco
LINE San Francisco -4
PIC PBX Dallas
Warning, I’m going to underestimate the guy again – he doesn’t work well for me.
No, the definition of insanity is NOT doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same result. Still, the pick against Brock Purdy hasn’t shown clear judgment so far.
The guy was absolutely gorgeous.
If it were, say, Kenny Pickett, or Sam Howell, or even Trey Lance, he would be hailed as the NFL’s next big thing. But because he’s Brock Purdy, and because he’s the third line, and because he was Mr. Ridiculous – that whole label and beat kind of annoys me; does this mean trevon walker was mr fit? – it is difficult to fully agree.
Every NFL quarterback has a clunker at some point, but seriously? 67%, 13 touchdown passes, four picks, undefeated as a starter in those big games?
It’s more about Dallas.
NFL Mock Draft: Top 23 orders and picks after the 2023 Wild Card
If it hadn’t been Dallas, and if he hadn’t carried all that baggage and all those expectations, he would have been preferred.
The only thing I’m worried about is the timing. San Francisco played Saturday morning, Dallas played Monday night, and Dallas had to go. The 49ers are approaching two days of extra rest. It’s a challenge, but I’m going with the talent.
Dallas has a combination of offensive firepower and defensive play that the 49ers — and Purdy — have yet to deal with. I’d like to get a little over four, but I’ll take it.
And I’ll probably play against Purdy in the NFL championship, too.
Speaking of digging the underdog on the road…
NEXT: NFL pick vs. the spread #4: Cincinnati at Buffalo
4. NFL Playoffs: Cincinnati at Buffalo
LINE Buffalo -5.5
PIC PBX Cincinnati
The buffalo scares me.
As I already wrote in the game preview, this is not the Buffalo team of last year at this time. He makes more mistakes and struggles to clear commands.
Last year’s team would have time to sweep the Dolphins in this Wild Card game.
But he scores a million points – more on that in the next announcement – he’s home and has the game he’s been waiting for. All this, and despite all my whining about how this isn’t the same team, they have 13 wins, nine by a touchdown or more.
I just like the Bengals to at least make this fight.
I can’t get to them and identify them right away – they weren’t exactly razor sharp against the Ravens – but they’re in the same boat as Buffalo. This is the game and the moment they’ve been waiting for – sort of.
Buffalo dreamed of correcting last year’s mistake and playing the Chiefs. It looks like the Bengals want it — for now — if I’m right about how both sides are doing.
Cincinnati’s defense is playing well, Joe Burrow won’t be bothered by the buzz, and it should come down to a late hit or a big moment.
I’m still picking Buffalo to win – Cincinnati’s offensive line is going to falter at some point – but 5.5 is good enough.
NEXT: NFL pick vs. No. 3 spread in Jacksonville at Kansas City
3. NFL Playoffs: Jacksonville to Kansas City
TOTAL POINTS 52.5
PIC PBX Finished
I refuse to be ashamed.
Anders can be just as interesting as the over if you have the right defence. I actually prefer a 3-0 first quarter on the under to a 17-10 first quarter on an over – it’s more satisfying.
Yeah, that doesn’t happen in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
I can’t quite get there with 48 on Giants-Eagles, but the other three games have the potential to be very entertaining.
Really? Do you think Kansas City’s long-awaited forward will put up 17 points? Only once did he score less than 20 points.
Here’s the kicker – Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 17. It was a Week 10 matchup and the Chiefs defense is good enough to keep the Jaguars from falling.
The Chiefs have been scoring consistently, but the offense has been a little hit or miss. He should be able to hit 20, but will that be enough?
yes D has allowed 27 or more in five of its last nine games, and four times it has given up fewer against the weak offenses of Tennessee (twice), the Jets and Houston. He is going to give up at least 27.
No one throws more touchdown passes than the Chiefs, someone gets to 30 in this one, and there’s a good chance Patrick Mahomes and company are doing most of the heavy lifting on their own.
But I understand. 52.5 is a big number so…
NEXT: NFL pick vs. No. 2 spread Dallas at San Francisco, Part 2
2. NFL Playoffs: Dallas to San Francisco
SUM OF POINTS 46
PIC PBX Finished
Yes, Dallas’ defense is good. That’s 12th overall in the NFL and fifth-most by D.
Yes, San Francisco’s defense is good. That’s partly because it boosted the stats of a bunch of teams watching from their couches, but yes, it’s No. 1 in both scoring and total defense.
And that defense was just fueled by Gina Smith and D.C. Metcalf with 23 points each.
You can kill on this bundle. He had an eight-game stretch where he allowed 20 points or less, but again, that’s not like against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen during the streak.
Dallas pounded Minnesota’s offense in a 40-3 victory, and it allowed more than 20 points just seven times.
But come on. You don’t end an NFL playoff weekend thinking it’s going to be 23-20.
San Francisco has scored 33 or more in six of its last seven games and seven of its last eight. Dallas is not kept under 20 years.
You are fine with over 46.
Speaking of which you’re not going to do this…
NEXT: NFL Picks vs. The Spread No. 1 Cincinnati at Buffalo
1. NFL Playoffs: Cincinnati at Buffalo
SUM OF POINTS 48.5
PIC PBX Finished
In no way.
You haven’t come this far as a football fan and waited this long for this game to go bad. You know you’re transitioning. This is a moral imperative.
Before the nightmare and cancellation, the two headed for a shootout of epic proportions. They’re not going to hold back, and they’re certainly not going to rely on controlling the clock and running plays.
As soon as one team starts scoring clearly and efficiently… THE GAME BEGIN.
Both coaching staffs know that, and so do you. Don’t bother showing up if you think 24 points will help.
Four times in Cincinnati’s last 15 games, they’ve been held under 23. Buffalo was held under the age of 23 just three times on the year.
Start with this – one side will score at least 30. If you think the loser won’t go above 17, well, maybe you’re right. Enjoy the dive down and the 7-layer dive, which is really only 5.5 layers.
This game has the potential to be too much fun not to pass up. If that doesn’t work, enjoy the show, tip your cap, and it’s Cowboys-49ers.
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