Purdue Basketball: Michigan St. Preview and how to watch

#1 Purdue (20-1, 9-1 Big 10) vs. State of Michigan (14-7, 6-4 Big 10)

How to watch

Sunday, January 29, 2023 12:15 PM EST

Mackey Arena – West Lafayette, Indiana

Television: CBS

Michigan State Register

Michigan State on offense

The Spartans are among the top 50 teams in three-point shooting, but are average in two-point field goal percentage, especially against bigger teams. This will be a game where they will need to shoot exceptionally well from mid-range and beyond the arc, but that can only happen if they create more open shots like they did in the 16 opener. They’re a relatively good free throw shooter at 75.3% at 75th (down from 75.7% at 41st), but don’t draw many fouls, and against a defense as disciplined as Purdue’s yu, Sparta can not expect to win this game from the stripe.

They usually line up in fours around the arc with one undersized center on the baseline just beyond the left or right border of the paint area, and the last time I saw them curve further was when they had to counter 7’4”. center and they did. They shot just over 47% from the field despite the three-point weekend: They are the 29th best three-point shooting team in the country at 37.4% and shot just 31.6% against the Boilers two weeks ago therefore. Purdue needs to take care of the perimeter because that is Michigan State’s bread and butter when it comes to staying in the game and/or getting back into the game. Let’s hope that doesn’t mean a hot start.

Michigan State on defense

In a matchup a few weeks ago, undersized Michigan State had no answer for Eddie. He had a mind-boggling 32 points and 17 rebounds while adding two blocks and going six-for-seven from the free throw line. He scored half of the team’s points in a 64-63 road win two weeks ago, so I expect the Boilers to play a better team game and not require that kind of production from Edey when Michigan State travels to West Lafayette. Also, they don’t block a lot of shots, and that will be a tough task against a big team like Purdue with college basketball’s premier center.

Spartans still use big-man substitutes far more evenly than most teams in the First Division, but if they learned anything from the last meeting, it’s that Maddy Sissoko is likely to be the main defender to look after Eddy down low . As I said in the preview, the wild card is freshman Carson Cooper, who shared 14% of the time on the court at the top five (down from 17% from their last game against Purdue). The 6-foot-11, 230-pound Cooper is Michigan State’s tight end Zach Eadie. Sissok’s overall playing time dropped from 53% to 52%, while freshman Jackson Kohler’s playing time increased to 29%, logging 23 minutes against Rutgers and 18 minutes against Indiana before returning to an average seven minutes against Iowa.

So, I expect Tom Izzo to experiment with a lot of combinations down low to try and slow down the giant Boilermaker center.

As is typical of Izzo’s teams at MSU, they feature a disciplined defense even when they’re very short, but how many times do we have to mention that the current leading player of the year candidate is 7’4″ and 285 pounds?

They continue to rank low in interceptions, ranking 353rd (up from 357th last game) in the nation in turnover percentage at 14.7. Elsewhere, though, they’re very good at closing down open jumpers, allowing them to rank 35th in field goal efficiency at 46.4. They are one of the top twelve teams in college basketball when it comes to blocking offensive rebounds, but again, that’s a much bigger test when you’re playing a team the size of Purdue. We saw that last time, and the Boilers should have no problem winning the battle for the boards.

The X Factor is revving

This year’s edition of Tom Izzo’s Spartans has one of the lowest turnovers in the country. As we’ve discussed many times this season, Matt Painter’s Boilermakers are pretty good at not coughing.

King draft rates

Odds/lines are subject to change. Terms and conditions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details

Point spread

Purdue: -8.5

More/less

130

Money line

Purdue: +320

Michigan State: -390

Prediction

Garrett

Purdue is 76

Michigan State is 63

Purdue’s guards and forwards didn’t play their best in East Lansing, and I can see some of the sloppy play being corrected in a less hostile environment. Well, Maki is very hostile, but not to us, obviously. Loyer really came alive in the second half at MSU, but the first half was essentially the Zach Eadie show for the Boilermakers, and I expect a much more cohesive and collected approach at home.

KenPom

Purdue is 70

Michigan State is 60

81% confidence