Expert: Putin has led his generals into a trap

He is convinced that the Russian forces want to strike in two directions at once.

“Why do most people say that there will be a simultaneous attack in the direction of Zaporizhia and Kryvyi Rih?” Most likely they came up with the idea of ​​breaking out in two directions, then joining together to solve the logistics issue. If they are really planning such actions, if they are successful, they could join forces with the Donbas formations”, M. Samus believes.

He is convinced that the occupiers will not be able to implement such a plan due to the constant interference of Russian President V. Putin: “These are the dreams of Russian generals, generals who no longer know what to do next. They fell into a trap because, after asking Putin’s political decision, they threw all their efforts into Donbass, because the president insisted on occupying Donetsk and Luhansk regions by April, declaring the independence of the so-called “Luhansk People’s Republic” and “Donetsk People’s Republic”, and holding a referendum. They have wanted to hold those referendums for a long time, but they are unable to do so. Since they gave all their strength to Donbas, the Ukrainian army opened such a sauna for them in the south.”

M. Samus is convinced that the Russians can gather enough forces in the south, but that will not make them more powerful.

“Rather, it’s the opposite: the more forces are thrown there, the more resources will be needed.” It will require fuel, ammunition, which is regularly destroyed by our HIMARS. In the end, people will be left there without ammunition, without fuel, equipment will simply stand idle, and Russian soldiers will simply be destroyed by Ukrainian forces,” the expert explained.

M. Samus was recently interviewed about the situation in Ukraine rbc.ua.

– Why are the occupiers moving their forces to the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia? It is known from open sources that they are moving these forces even from the east. Is it for defensive purposes, or do they still want to go on the offensive?

– In fact, the situation is very unfavorable for the Russians, because Ukraine has started to effectively use the HIMARS missile salvo fire systems, destroys Russian ammunition, artillery stockpiles, command posts, logistics, and so on. Russia is already losing its advantage in Donbass.

In the south, their situation is now such that their forces in the direction of Zaporizhia and Kryvyi Rih, on the western bank of the Dnieper, are already virtually surrounded. Destroyed bridges. If the Russians cannot effectively secure both logistics, personnel and ammunition, it essentially means that they are surrounded. There is only one way out: either to give up or to continue to invent something.

For some reason, he decided to invent something. Russian generals do not dare to tell Putin that they are withdrawing from Kherson. It’s not possible even in theory, but in any case, they won’t announce a “goodwill move” just yet, like they did with Snake Island. They couldn’t leave there either. The same thing happened with Kyiv and the Kyiv region. They could not even theoretically imagine a retreat, because even then there was no way, there was no such possibility.

Now this is happening in the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia, especially Kherson, where the Russians are now in a very difficult situation. That is why they want to transfer reinforcements there, so that they can try to attack in the direction of Kryvyi Rih, possibly in the direction of Mykolaivsk, and change the situation that the Ukrainian army has created now.

I’m just sure they won’t succeed. It’s such a chaotic attempt, ill-advised. This is the emotional reaction of the Russian generals to the situation: “I am not interested in how you will solve this issue, but if you withdraw from Kherson and that area, I will shoot and destroy you.” They don’t know what to do because they have nowhere to draw strength from.

You said very correctly: they have already started to transfer the forces from Donbass to other places, although V. Putin gave a very clear political task – to occupy Donbass at any cost. They did not cope with that task, but they are forced to throw their forces in the direction of Kherson, because the situation there is absolutely hopeless, and they are trying to find some kind of solution. I think the result will be even worse as more Russian soldiers will be captured and killed.

– I don’t quite understand how they plan to move that reinforcement to the right bank, after all, we control all the most important crossings through the Dnieper. Let’s say they get it right. This complicates and delays our planned attack in the Kherson region, after all, it has not been announced for the first month?

– We are not dependent on time. In this case, the most important thing is not to fall into this trap – not to start planning your operations depending on some dates. The operation is successful only when there are favorable circumstances for its implementation. This is the necessary concentration of forces, the necessary tactical attitude, the necessary plan of operational actions. If we start talking about some dates, all our parameters become time-dependent. Operations at this level should not be defined by the concept of time.

If this operation of ours is not dependent on other important events that can somehow change the strategic or operational situation, then it is best to focus only on the creation of suitable conditions. Therefore, I do not see a tragedy at all that, for example, the counterattack will not take place today, but, say, tomorrow. Efficiency is key here.

If the Russians start to attack, then, it is possible, territorially, their forces will be dispersed. And they will be separated for a while, because they cannot move in different directions at the same time. That situation is similar to the one in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. They broke through 200-300 kilometers, and then the Ukrainian army simply cut their logistic lines, they had to surrender.

Some were destroyed, some escaped.

The same situation, at least I hope so, is now forming in the south: they will try to move forward, the Ukrainian army will disrupt their logistics and gradually destroy them little by little. The same scenario as in the Kyiv region is possible, when the map of the battles did not change for a long time, and then in just 3-4 days the Russians moved out of there. This operation may end up with the Russians simply fleeing in panic.

– What is with us today in the Donetsk region? Analysts from the Institute of Military Research believe that the culmination of this Russian offensive may end there before taking over Bakhmut or Slovyansk. They are very slowly, but moving towards Bakhmut, a few kilometers in two weeks.

– Of course, they have a political task – they need to occupy all areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Without them, V. Putin cannot talk about any tangible results of this operation, Donetsk and Luhansk areas must be in Russian hands. Even the aces of propaganda will find it very difficult to explain to the Russian people what happened here at all: they lost Kherson, they failed to occupy Donbass, so why such huge losses?

Therefore, against the background of the Kherson issue, which may have suddenly arisen for them, Donbass will not disappear from the agenda until it is possible to occupy it in its entirety. Therefore, the culmination is still far away there, they must create favorable conditions for attacks in Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and only then attack other territories of Donbass to the end. I think they will now try to extend their storming efforts.

They only have problems with artillery, HIMARS are successfully destroying their ammunition caches, there is a threat of personnel problems, they are being dragged south, so naturally the attack weakens. At least until some decision is made on Kherson. Only after regular regrouping of forces in Donbass can any attack formation be created. They, of course, want to do everything very quickly. I just can’t imagine how they plan it.

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