Putin hopes that economic losses from the gas cuts will reduce Western support for Ukraine until Western weaponry breaks its military.
According to a Yale study, when the war began, any Russian company that received profits in foreign currency was forced to 80 percent. to convert it into rubles, which skewed the market in favor of the ruble.
A parallel black market emerged where real cash dollars were traded at 100% margin. premium for the official course.
Experts also refute the thesis that the decrease in Russian exports is compensated by increased prices.
They emphasize that Russian government the statistics were carefully fabricated lies to hide the true extent of the impending catastrophe.
“If we look at the actual market data on the actual amount of oil and gas sold, Russia’s income from energy exports fell to $14.9 billion in May. dollars, which is less than half of what it was in the first month after the invasion,” the report said.
Experts point to two reasons for this decline.
One is that China, supposedly Russia’s last major international ally, has relentlessly demanded a huge discount on Russian oil.
In addition, shipping Russian oil from Novorossiysk has become more expensive due to sanctions that make payments more difficult, as well as shipping and cargo insurance.
Another reason Russia’s energy revenues have fallen is that Putin has effectively decided to sanction his own gas and cut supplies to Europe.
The authors of the Yale report note that Putin’s plans to pivot to the East make neither economic nor practical sense.
in 2021 Russia exported only 16.5 billion to China. cubic meters of gas, and 170 billion to Europe. cubic meters.
Now Russia’s westernmost gas field, Chayanda, connected to China by the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, has a maximum planned annual capacity of only 25 billion. cubic meters, and that’s only until 2025.
“Other gas fields, especially Sakhalin and Khabarovsk, will be connected to “Energy in Siberia”.
However, even after the completion of the entire Far Eastern gas network, its capacity will still not reach one of the Russian gas pipelines to Europe “Nord Stream 1″ (55 billion cubic meters) capacity,” the authors note.
Meanwhile, the announced 50 billion cubic meter per year Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would connect the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic with China, remains a paper plan.
Gazprom, which is barred from international financing and the purchase of Western equipment due to sanctions, is unable to finance the project.
“Therefore, Putin’s proposed ‘pivot’ depends entirely on Beijing’s money.”
in 2014 completed 45 billion The construction of the Power of Siberia 1 project worth $100,000 was fully financed by China.
But despite Beijing’s supposed diplomatic support for Moscow, the threat of US sanctions on their global operations has forced many of China’s leading banks to end all loans and financing with Russia.
Chinese energy giants such as Sinochem have also suspended all Russian investments and joint ventures,” the report said.
Although some Chinese companies still operate in Russia, they are only those that do not operate outside of Russia and China, so they have nothing to lose from international sanctions.
And while China remains the last lender to Siberia’s Power 2, this support will come at a high political price for the Kremlin.
In addition, experts note that while Moscow considers itself Beijing’s main economic partner, it is actually only China’s 11th most important market.
Trade turnover between the two countries reached 72.69 billion per year. dollars.
At the same time in 2021 The value of China’s trade with the US reached 506 billion. dollars.